Another McCain foreign policy flub

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Saturday March 22, 2008 · 6:49 AM PDT

2008/03/22 · 06:49

It was supposed to be economics that was McCain's weak suit. Lest anyone think the whatchya ma Iraqi gaffe was an isolated event, we now have him blurting out embargoed foreign policy information, in this case the fact that the French are about to send additional troops to Afghanistan.

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Monday February 25, 2008 · 6:30 AM PST

2008/02/25 · 06:30

Obama Gains On Clinton In Ohio Dem Primary Quinnipiac University Likely Voter Poll Finds; College-Educated Voters In Big Shift To Obama

I'm actually surprised it's not closer, but, hey, there's more than a week left. But looks like there's plenty of room for improvement by Obama:

Buoyed by a big shift among college-educated voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is gaining on New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who now leads 51 - 40 percent among Ohio likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 55 - 34 percent Clinton lead in a February 14 likely voter poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. College-educated voters back Sen. Obama 58 - 33 percent, compared to a 46 - 41 percent Clinton lead with these voters February 14.

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Tuesday February 12, 2008 · 7:57 AM PST

2008/02/12 · 07:57

I don't think this has been diarized yet. From Susan Page, of USA Today

(February 12, 2008) — WASHINGTON — Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama has edged ahead of Hillary Rodham Clinton for the first time in a nationwide USA Today/Gallup Poll, which also shows Republican John McCain struggling to energize a dispirited GOP.

A different poll shows Clinton still ahead of Obama, however.

The surveys were released on the eve of primaries today in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. In both polls, McCain is running statistically even in a head-to-head contest against Clinton and slightly behind Obama.

In the USA Today poll, Obama bests Clinton 47 to 44 percent among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic.

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Tuesday November 02, 2004 · 11:20 PM PST

2004/11/02 · 23:20

This is the key to the question "what the fuck happened?"

Popular vote:

Bush 50,456,002 Gore 50,999,897
Total = 101,455,899

Bush 51,082,954 Kerry 47,487,934
Total = 98,570,888 (so far)

What happened to all the record-breaking registration? Turnout is down is absolute terms and way down relative to increased registration.

Even with additional votes trickling in and absentee ballots, etc., I don't see it equalling 2000.

Kos challenge: Out Rethug GOTV strategy

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Sunday October 24, 2004 · 2:55 AM PDT

2004/10/24 · 02:55

According to this WaPo article, the Rethugs are being all smug and mum about their exact GOTV strategy.

[...]The pro-Bush effort is far more centralized, run out of the Republican National Committee, which refuses to release details and has instructed volunteers through a Web site to "have NO contact with the media." [...]

RNC spokeswoman Christine Iverson said information is being closely held to keep the GOP strategy from reaching Democrats. The policy is so strictly enforced that GOP volunteers contacted in Ohio, Kentucky, Florida and Washington, D.C., refused to talk to a reporter even about nonstrategic matters such as the feelings behind their activism.[...]

Of course, this is the kind of thing you do in poker when you're holding a shit hand. Still, if being successful in keeping things secret is a source of confidence for them, I think we owe it to ourselves to puncture it. I'm getting my Googling fingers ready, and I'd be interested in finding out what anybody else knows or finds.

Unapologetic poll shopping: FL

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Sunday October 24, 2004 · 12:19 AM PDT

2004/10/24 · 00:19

There are polls upon polls coming out and plenty of room for the entire cast of blog characters to see what they want and reinforce their preconceptions and gut instincts. Well, I'm going to give free reign to mine in this diary, because, while there are probably more gung ho, Bush-is-toast diaries, it's the handwringing, oh-no-what-are-we-going-to-do-I-knew-it-I-knew-it-I-knew-it ones that get all the bandwidth.

Bottom line: It's FL again, but this time FL is our redemption instead of our downfall. PA and OH are in the bag, and FL is the trump card that cancels out any Rovian last-ditch onside kick/squeeze bunt in IA, WI, and NM. So, I was particularly lifted up by the latest FL poll from Research 2000 reported in the Sun-Sentinel, and even more by the obligatory voter interviews. Maybe we should show William Gibson some appreciation: wgibson@sun-sentinel.com Read More

NV mobilization needed?

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Friday October 22, 2004 · 9:49 AM PDT

2004/10/22 · 09:49

Ryan Lizza has this post on his blog at TNR (Jon Ralston is an NV-based journalist):

NEVADA UPDATE: According to Jon Ralston's most recent e-mail, Republicans are doing very well in Clark County, home of Las Vegas:

More than 86,000 people have now voted early and almost 22,000 have sent in mail ballots in Clark County--the combined number is 107,866. Democrats have about 2,300-voter lead when the totals are combined. The actual numbers when mail and early voting are combined:

Democrats -- 47,713 (44 percent)
Republicans -- 45,444 (42 percent)
Independents -- 14,709 (14 percent)

Republicans are voting five percent above their registration in Clark County and Democrats are voting at their proportional numbers. That almost surely means that the Democrats will have to significantly widen this lead or it is unlikely that John Kerry will have a large enough advantage in Clark County to win the state.

I know nothing about NV politics beyond what I read here. Is there anything more that can be done? Ideas?

Zogby still 45-45, but some underlying movement

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Tuesday October 19, 2004 · 4:11 AM PDT

2004/10/19 · 04:11

link

For the second consecutive day, Bush and Kerry were deadlocked at 45 percent apiece in the three-day tracking poll. About 7 percent of likely voters say they are still undecided between the president and the Massachusetts senator.

"The candidates are still in a statistical dead heat, with Kerry making incremental gains in a steady drip-drip-drip that has eroded the president's lead," said pollster John Zogby. Bush had a four-point lead three days ago.

The number of likely voters who believe Bush deserves to be re-elected dropped from 47 percent to 45 percent over the last four days, with the number of voters who believe it is time for someone new climbing from 48 percent to 51 percent.

Social Security--Kerry's magic bullet

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Sunday October 17, 2004 · 1:50 PM PDT

2004/10/17 · 13:50

Look, we've had so many things that were supposed to be fatal for Bush (Richard Clarke, Abu Ghraib, pretzels, you name it), but I think the lastest one will do it: Bush's "January Suprise" plan to privatize Social Security. You can tell the Kerry people are chomping at the bit on this--two blog entries already, an instant ad, and a conference call with Shrum. And, just in time for early voting in FL!

All of this from ABC's Noted Now

SOCIAL SECURITY FIGHT OVER RON SUSKIND NYT MAG PIECE:

SUSKIND ARTICLE: "According to notes provided to me, and according to several guests at the lunch who agreed to speak about what they heard ... Bush kept coming back to the thing most on his mind: his second term. 'I'm going to come out strong after my swearing in,' Bush said, 'with fundamental tax reform, tort reform, privatizing of Social Security.'"

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Thursday October 14, 2004 · 2:45 PM PDT

2004/10/14 · 14:45

According to this WaPo article, internal polls from both campaigns show Kerry in very good position:

Kerry and Bush strategists largely agree on the battlefield, and who is winning in each state -- save Ohio. While the Bush campaign says it is winning Ohio, Kerry's internal polling shows the president losing by about five points and fading, according to two aides. Kerry will campaign in Ohio this weekend and many more times before election day.

The Kerry campaign is confident that it is winning Pennsylvania and Michigan by comfortable margins and pulling slightly ahead in Florida, a must-win state for Bush. The Kerry campaign's polling shows Bush leading in Iowa and West Virginia, and running about even in Wisconsin.

Kerry, however, has largely failed to erode the president's strong support among rural voters, especially in the upper Midwest, and among the devoutly religious, according to [Stan] Greenberg. Democrats credit Bush's support among the religious and rural for small, but significant, leads in Iowa, which Gore won in 2000, and West Virginia, as well as stronger-than-expected numbers in Wisconsin and Minnesota.

By my reckoning, giving Bush IA and WI and assuming that otherwise the 2000 electoral pattern holds, that gives Kerry 290 and Bush 248. That would mean that Kerry could actually lose Ohio and still win 270-268. Sound reasonable?

Why Mary and not Osama?

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Thursday October 14, 2004 · 10:14 AM PDT

2004/10/14 · 10:14

What's going on? The post debate discussion is being dominated by the whole Mary Cheney thing and no one is pushing the "I-don't-care-about-Osama" angle, not even on Kerry's blog. Worse yet, it looks like some "Kerry aide" is admitting some level of wrongdoing:

KERRY CAMPAIGN: Senior Kerry aide acknowledges "it was not his best moment," but calls charges that it was inappropriate "ridiculous... The woman is in her thirties. She's public about her sexuality. It was brought up in the last debate. So, what the hell?" ABC News' Marc Ambinder reports...

Josh Marshall, Chris Suellentrop and Kevin Drum all make similar points about how devastating this is potentially for Bush's credibility in general and his standing as Dear Leader of the War on Terra.

I agree with Suellentrop: "Bush's Bin Laden goof will give Kerry his best opportunity to score a post-debate knockout." Why isn't this happening? How can we make it happen? Any ideas?

Change vs more of the same vs who knows what???

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Tuesday October 12, 2004 · 12:42 PM PDT

2004/10/12 · 12:42

I'm loathe to post a "What Kerry should do" diary because I hate it when all the other armchair John Sassos do it. But I can't help wondering why Kerry isn't spending more time conjuring up what the next four years would be like if (perish the thought) Bush is reelected (I hate even writing it). It seems to me to be the most straightforward way to tap into the right track/wrong track sentiments.

The campaign seems to have just discovered this obvious line of attack. From the WaPo:

Kerry's speech was part of a new effort by his campaign to convince voters that sticking with Bush for four more years would be risky, contrary to the Bush-Cheney campaign's portrayal of the president as the safer choice at a time of global uncertainty.

Polls show the race remains close, but Kerry's aides believe they have found a winning line of attack -- that Bush stubbornly refuses to face reality about the bad choices he has made at home and abroad and is distorting the consequences. At each stop, the senator has begun saying Bush is in a "state of denial."

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Another McCain foreign policy flub

New Q Poll in OH: HRC 51, BHO 40

USA Today/Gallup: Obama passes Clinton for the first time

The real mystery--turnout is down

Kos challenge: Out Rethug GOTV strategy

Unapologetic poll shopping: FL

NV mobilization needed?

Zogby still 45-45, but some underlying movement

Social Security--Kerry's magic bullet

State of the battleground

Why Mary and not Osama?

Change vs more of the same vs who knows what???