According to
this WaPo article, internal polls from both campaigns show Kerry in very good position:
Kerry and Bush strategists largely agree on the battlefield, and who is winning in each state -- save Ohio. While the Bush campaign says it is winning Ohio, Kerry's internal polling shows the president losing by about five points and fading, according to two aides. Kerry will campaign in Ohio this weekend and many more times before election day.
The Kerry campaign is confident that it is winning Pennsylvania and Michigan by comfortable margins and pulling slightly ahead in Florida, a must-win state for Bush. The Kerry campaign's polling shows Bush leading in Iowa and West Virginia, and running about even in Wisconsin.
Kerry, however, has largely failed to erode the president's strong support among rural voters, especially in the upper Midwest, and among the devoutly religious, according to [Stan] Greenberg. Democrats credit Bush's support among the religious and rural for small, but significant, leads in Iowa, which Gore won in 2000, and West Virginia, as well as stronger-than-expected numbers in Wisconsin and Minnesota.
By my reckoning, giving Bush IA and WI and assuming that otherwise the 2000 electoral pattern holds, that gives Kerry 290 and Bush 248. That would mean that Kerry could actually lose Ohio and still win 270-268. Sound reasonable?