There are polls upon polls coming out and plenty of room for the entire cast of blog characters to see what they want and reinforce their preconceptions and gut instincts. Well, I'm going to give free reign to mine in this diary, because, while there are probably more gung ho, Bush-is-toast diaries, it's the handwringing, oh-no-what-are-we-going-to-do-I-knew-it-I-knew-it-I-knew-it ones that get all the bandwidth.
Bottom line: It's FL again, but this time FL is our redemption instead of our downfall. PA and OH are in the bag, and FL is the trump card that cancels out any Rovian last-ditch onside kick/squeeze bunt in IA, WI, and NM. So, I was particularly lifted up by the latest FL poll from Research 2000 reported in the Sun-Sentinel, and even more by the obligatory voter interviews. Maybe we should show William Gibson some appreciation: wgibson@sun-sentinel.com
Bush, Kerry in dead heat, Florida survey shows
The latest poll, conducted Oct. 18-21 by Research 2000 for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Florida Times-Union, found Kerry leading Bush by the narrowest of margins in Florida: 48 percent to 47 percent, with 2 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader.
The results came from 600 registered Florida voters who have a history of voting in statewide elections. They reflect the state's party affiliations and demographics by age, gender, race and region. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Kerry fared best with African-Americans and the youngest and oldest voters. Bush held a clear lead among middle-aged voters and Hispanics.
Interviews with some of those surveyed indicate that new voters, who have registered in record numbers this year, are giving Kerry his best chance for ousting the incumbent president. One big question on Election Day, Nov. 2, is whether these newcomers will show up at their polling places.[...]
"The main thing that got me to register to vote is the fact that early on Bush reinstated the draft board and hired new people for it. Even though he recently corrected himself and said we will have a volunteer army, I still think he might go back on his word," said Victor Musacchia, 20, of Key Biscayne, a Kerry backer.
"He [Bush] basically forced our people to fight a war that only he felt was just. He would stop at nothing to try to convince us. I think he will push us even further into a conflict."
[...]
In the Florida poll, 51 percent rated Bush's handling of the war as fair or poor, while 42 percent called it excellent or good. These figures, compared with those in similar earlier polls conducted by Research 2000, show erosion in support for Bush's handling of the war.
Last February, 49 percent of Floridians rated Bush's handling of the war as excellent or good, while 45 percent called it fair or poor. In July 2003, 77 percent of Floridians rated it excellent or good, and only 23 percent said it was fair or poor.
Exactly half of those surveyed in the new poll said the situation in Iraq "was not worth going to war over," while 45 percent said it was worthwhile and 5 percent were unsure.
Voters age 18 to 34 backed Kerry over Bush by 53 percent to 44 percent. Kerry also drew a majority, 56 percent, from those 60 and older, while 53 percent of middle-aged voters favored Bush.
[...]new voters in the Florida poll said they are highly motivated to oust Bush.
"I didn't think he [Bush] won last time, because they messed up the voting and stuff," said Sonya Legrand, 29, of Orlando, who said she, her mother and four sisters have registered to vote for the first time in this election. "I don't like that Bush is trying to take away affirmative action. He is looking out for the rich, not helping people like me and anybody I know.
"I'll make sure I vote even if I have to walk to the polls. The only thing I'm afraid of is that it's going to be messed up again.''[...]
In South Florida, where election problems were especially numerous, 58 percent of those polled said they favored Kerry, while 31 percent favored Bush, with 6 percent for Nader. Bush led in all other regions of the state.
Bush also led Kerry among Hispanic voters statewide, 58 percent to 40 percent, while black Floridians favored Kerry over Bush by a whopping 86 percent to 4 percent.[...]